Obama win preferred in world poll

Most thought US relations would get better under a president Obama

People outside the US would prefer Barack Obama to become US president ahead of John McCain, a BBC World Service poll suggests.

Democrat Mr Obama was favored by a four-to-one margin across the 22,500 people polled in 22 countries.

In 17 countries, the most common view was that US relations with the rest of the world would improve under Mr Obama.

If Republican Mr McCain were elected, the most common view was that relations would remain about the same.

The poll was conducted before the Democratic and Republican parties held their conventions and before the headline-grabbing nomination of Sarah Palin as Mr McCain’s running mate.

The results could therefore be a reflection of the greater media focus on Mr Obama as he competed for the presidential candidacy against Hillary Clinton.

The margin of those in favor of Mr Obama winning November’s US election ranged from 9% in India to 82% in Kenya, which is the birthplace of the Illinois senator’s father.

On average 49% preferred Mr Obama to 12% in favor of Mr McCain. Nearly four in 10 of those polled did not take a view.

On average 46% thought US relations with the world would improve with Mr Obama in the White House, 22% that ties would stay the same, while seven per cent expected relations to worsen.

Only 20% thought ties would get better if Mr McCain were in the Oval Office.

The expectation that a McCain presidency would improve US relations with the world was the most common view, by a modest margin, only in China, India and Nigeria.

But across the board, the largest number – 37% – thought relations under a president McCain would stay the same, while 16% expected them to deteriorate.

In no country did most people think that a McCain presidency would worsen relations.

Some 30% of Americans expected relations to improve under Mr McCain

Oddly, in Turkey more people thought US relations would worsen with an Obama presidency than under Mr McCain, even though most Turks polled preferred Mr Obama to win.

In Egypt, Lebanon, Russia and Singapore, the predominant expectation was that relations would remain the same if Mr Obama won the election.

The countries most optimistic that an Obama presidency would improve ties were US Nato allies – Canada (69%), Italy (64%), France (62%), Germany (61%), and the UK (54%) – as well as Australia (62%), along with Kenya (87%) and Nigeria (71%).

When asked whether the election as president of the African-American Mr Obama would “fundamentally change” their perception of the US, 46% said it would while 27% said it would not.

The US public was polled separately and Americans also believed an Obama presidency would improve US ties with the world more than a McCain presidency.

Forty-six per cent of Americans expected relations to get better if Mr Obama were elected and 30% if Mr McCain won the White House.

A similar poll conducted for BBC World Service ahead of the 2004 US presidential election found most countries would have preferred to see Democratic nominee John Kerry beat the incumbent George W Bush.

At the time, the Philippines, Nigeria and Poland were among the few countries to favor Mr Bush’s re-election. All three now favor Mr Obama over Mr McCain.

In total 22,531 citizens were polled in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Panama, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Turkey, the UAE and the UK. A parallel survey was conducted with 1,000 US adults.

Polling firm GlobeScan and the Program on International Policy Attitudes carried out the survey between July and August.

Output issues loom as Opec meets

Iran is leading the calls from those nations demanding an output cut

The United Arab Emirates'(UAE) delegation to Tuesday’s Opec oil meeting says the cartel will continue to keep the world “well supplied”.

Minister of Energy Mohammed Bin Dhaen Al-Hamli also said crude stockpiles in major oil consuming nations were within recent average levels.

It came as Iran led calls for Opec to cut output.

Analysts say the cartel may scale back production as prices have fallen from $147 a barrel in July to about $107.

Light, sweet crude rose 53 cents to $106.67 during trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday.

‘Market requirements’

The price hit a five-month low just above $105 on Friday, under pressure from economic weakness and lower fuel consumption.

However the Kuwaiti oil minister, Mohammad Olaim, backed the views of the UEA’s delegate Al-Hamli.

“We don’t think there is a requirement to decrease production,” he said before leaving for the meeting in Vienna.

“If the market requires anything to do, we will.”

Al-Hamli added in his remarks that decisions on production levels are based on whether the market is well supplied.

He also said the recent fall in prices showed that the earlier steep rise in prices from $100 a barrel at the turn of the year was “too high, too fast”.

But Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said on Monday that there was “oversupply” as he arrived for the 13-nation conference.

Increased output

On Sunday, Libya also called for a reduction in Opec output. Opec is currently thought to be producing about a million barrels per day (bpd) more than its official ceiling of 29.67 million bpd.

In May and June Saudi Arabia agreed to increase production by 500,000 bpd to help calm markets.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi has yet to state an opinion on output and prices ahead of the meeting.

Opec produces about 40% of world crude. In July, the exporters’ group said world demand for oil will grow by 50% between now and 2030 as people in developing countries drive more cars.